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The difference of Upstart Goblin in Six Samurai

January 6, 2011

Recently, there’s a trend of including 3x Upstart Goblin in Six Samurai.

This highlights the concept of Six Samurai being a combo deck.

Before I continue, below is an example deck list. (I know many of you are more interested in what is the deck list than why.)

First place for第4回四国チャンピオンシップ:
(Source: mhのデッキレシピ板)

Player: ますたさん

Monster: 12

3x Grandmaster of the Six Samurai
3x Kagemusha of the Six Samurai
3x True Six Samurai – Kizan
3x True Six Samurai – Kageki

Spells: 20

3x Shien’s Smoke Signal
3x Six Samurai United
3x Gateway of the Six
3x Upstart Goblin
1x Reinforcement of The Army
1x Monster Reborn
1x Giant Trunade
2x Mystical Space Typhoon
3x Book of Moon

Traps: 8

1x Royal Oppression
1x Solemn Judgment
3x Solemn Warning
3x Double-Edged Sword Technique

Side Deck: 15

1x Mirror Force
3x Puppet Plant
1x Dark Hole
1x Gorz the Emissary of Darkness
1x Dust Tornado
3x Rivalry of Warlord
1x Trap Dustshoot
3x Dimension Prison
1x Chain Disappearance

Extra Deck: 15

1x Ally of Justice Catastor
1x Ally of Justice Decisive Arm
1x Mist Wurm
1x Colossal Fighter
1x Goyo Guardian
1x Stardust Dragon
1x Black Rose Dragon
1x Naturia Balkion
1x Naturia Landoise
1x Determined Daredevil
2x True Six Samurai – Shien
1x Brionac, Dragon of the Ice Barrier
1x Trishula, Dragon of the Ice Barrier
1x Tech Genus Hyper Librarian

The basic strategy of Six Samurai is to set up your combo with Gateway of the Six and flood the field. The whole deck is about getting your combo pieces, and also to set up Shien lock on your first turn (most match up). By playing 3x Upstart Goblin, the deck is indirectly reduced to 37 cards. This increases the probability of getting those combo pieces. It is because when you draw into Upstart Goblin and use it, it’ll become another card. Hence, Upstart Goblin is just there to make up the minimum 40 cards deck size, with the drawback of donating 1000LP to opponent.

So how much difference does it make by ‘reducing’ your deck to 37 cards?

Probability for 40 cards deck (Without Upstart Goblin):
– 39.43% to draw 1 or more Gatewayin the first turn
– 64.96% to draw 1 or more Gateway/United in the first turn
– 60% to summon Shien in the first turn
– 39.43% to draw 1 or more Solemn Warning in the first turn
– 15% to draw Giant Trunade in the first turn

Probability for 37 cards deck (With 3x Upstart Goblin):
– 42.15% to draw 1 or more Gateway in the first turn
– 68.33% to draw 1 or more Gateway/United in the first turn
– 66% to summon Shien in the first turn
– 42.15% to draw 1 or more Solemn Warning in the first turn
– 16.22% to draw Giant Trunade in the first turn

-Edit-
Lauren pointed out a good point, because scooping it to 37 cards means that I assume I’ll draw into all 3 Upstart Goblin which is inaccurate. By assuming it as 37 cards, it only gives the highest possible probability.

Also if I draw into 1 Upstart Goblin, I may draw into another using the 1st Upstart Goblin, and it goes on. I’ll calculate the exact probability when I’ve time for this. For now, I’ll settle with the below result:

Probability for playing 3x Upstart Goblin in a 40 cards deck:
– 39.43 – 42.15% to draw 1 or more Gatewayin the first turn
– 64.96 – 68.33% to draw 1 or more Gateway/United in the first turn
– 60 – 66% to summon Shien in the first turn
– 39.43 – 42.15% to draw 1 or more Solemn Warning in the first turn
– 15 – 16.22% to draw Giant Trunade in the first turn

The range includes the probability of not drawing any Upstart Goblin and drawing into 3 Upstart Goblin in the first turn. The exact probability falls within it and that is inclusive of drawing into another Upstart Goblin with an Upstart Goblin etc..

Even without calculating, you’ll know that you will stand a better chance draw into the combo pieces with 3x Upstart Goblin. The question is whether the increase in probability to draw into the combo pieces is significant enough to cover the drawback of Upstart Goblin.

P.S. I’m an University student who doesn’t major in mathematics or statistics.


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7 comments

  1. Instead of using the 37 cards method, how about calculating the percentage of drawing into the card in a 40 card deck and then adding the percentage of drawing into Upstart Goblin and then using it to get the card.

    For example,

    % of Giant Trunade in starting hand of 6= 16.033%

    then you add in the (percentage of drawing into Upstart Goblin) X (percentage of drawing into Giant Trunade with Upstart Goblin)

    = [(3/40) (3/39) (3/38) (3/37) (3/36)]×(1/34)
    = about 1.4146% (its slightly more than that, with the chances of drawing double/triple Upstart Goblin or drawing Upstart Goblin with Upstart Goblin or drawing Upstart Goblin with Upstart Goblin from Upstart Goblin)

    Total % of getting Giant Trunade T1= about 17.447%

    It is more accurate this way than just calculating your deck size as 37.

    I’m not sure if the numbers are correct as my computer has been down for quite a while and my probability calculators are there.


  2. The probability of drawing Giant Trunade (1 card) in a 40 cards deck in a starting hand of 6 cards is 15%, assuming you don’t play cards like Pot of Duality, Upstart Goblin etc.

    I use (http://stattrek.com/Tables/Hypergeometric.aspx)


    • Thanks for the calculator.

      But wouldn’t 15% mean that the calculator justs takes the 6 cards from the top of the deck at the same time rather than drawing them one by one, which would make the probability smaller?


      • You can find different types of probability calculator online. I used another whereby it’s for deck building, the result is consistent with all different calculators that i use.


  3. Hey!!
    wazzup friend!

    Are you interested in a link exchange?
    by this way, i’m Lennin from Deck Express…
    so, i see the actualization thanks for the message

    greetings !!


  4. Linked*


  5. You don’t need Math to solve the problem. Basically, the drawback of Upstart Goblin is giving 1000 LP to your opponent, big deal. But Life Points are nothing when you already lock the field with Shien and your swarms. That’s the point of it.



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